The Corroseum forum (new design under construction)

nightsblood wrote:

lunaboy wrote:
It's a good example I think.But it fit's just for records with bigger (found) stocks.If a copy shows just once in 2 or so years price will be always high.Another thing is when market is over flooded with records.Think JONAS GRUMBY as good example.There's a copy for sale of this record almost every week and price is quite low.

You're absolutely right.... which is why it's ludicrous for people to claim that every single is rapidly climbing in price. It's supply and demand, simple as that. If Emerald- or any other single- only shows up once every year or two, then there's always gonna be people wanting it and waiting for a copy, so the price will remain high. If the same record starts showing up once every other week, demand will quickly be satisfied and the price will quickly drop.

Currently there are not a lot of people collecting US singles, so it does not take many copies to meet demand. And people are still figuring out which singles are truly rare and which ones will turn up regularly, and people are still finding quantity of some singles.
---Tora Orphan was very rare 6 months ago, but now more copies have been found.
---The line for a copy of Far East is very long, but if 2 dozen copies are discovered tomorrow, it'll go from Mythic to Mundane and the price will soon reflect that.
---For years only 1-2 (I think) copies of JUDGE have been in collector's hands, but in the past two months 2 more copies have been found; will more turn up or not? If so, the price will quickly fall from $200; if another copy doesn't show up for 3-4 years, then the price will go up next time.

Buying is a risk; you can't predict the future. If someone posts JUDGE on Youtube and 100 Legend fans go nuts for it, the price will soar next time. But if it gets posted and most people don't like it, then they're unlikely to buy it period.

But on the other hand you'll never know if some of these "unknown" 45s appear in bigger quantities.Sometimes it happens but not so often.So buyers with large pockets always take this risk.

Tora Orphan is still rare I think(Less than 20 known copies).But there's still more 45s into FAR EAST league (This band just got HUGE HYPE). THEATRICS for example (2 copies had John and I know where another 2 are).APPRENTESS 45 (never ever seen this offered) nor on lists or sale.Also What quantity do you consider as big to please the market? 25 copies? 50? If music is good then even these 50 copies could sell very fast and without big drop of the price.

I have talked abiout this many times over the years

What is RARE?
How many copies of a GOOD record before the price drops?

Example:

I have sold over 300 copies of the Madd Hatter LP it is still a $50+ record

Its all supply and demand

Around 20 known copies of a single is usually more than enough to saturate today's market. Look at the Stryder single, for example. The first few copies sold for $500 but now it's around $100 - $150. Still, there are less than ten collectors in the world who actually own a copy. Same with the Crisis single, it repeatedly sold for way over $400 (less than 20 known copies in total at the time), but once a few more copies were discovered the price quickly dropped to less than $100.

A bird whispered in my ear that quite a few copies of Tora Orphan have surfaced recently, so I suspect this one will be coming down to below $100 in the near future.

Even if the music is good, prices will fall rapidly as new copies are discovered.

Note that it's different for LPs.

A bird whispered in my ear that quite a few copies of Tora Orphan have surfaced recently, so I suspect this one will be coming down to below $100 in the near future.

This is not true to my knowledge I believe the # is still under 20



What about Lord Ryur? I have sold almost 50 copies and it is still a $300 record

The exception that proves the rule?

Oh, and of course Tora Orphan won't drop as rapidly as the others. I don't have it. That's why, haha.

lunaboy wrote:
But on the other hand you'll never know if some of these "unknown" 45s appear in bigger quantities.Sometimes it happens but not so often.So buyers with large pockets always take this risk.

You're correct; it is a risk. And yes, it's a risk some collectors can afford to take but others cannot afford.
We've seen several singles turn up in recent years in enough quantity to significantly drop the price. Some examples:
Crisis: went from $350 to $75
Obliveon: Went from $300+ to < $100
Shyzgifter: Went from $250 to $100
Sabotage: Went from $100 to < $50
Tora Orphan: Was $500 before some copies recently turned up; I don't know what the updated price is.

Tora Orphan is still rare I think(Less than 20 known copies).But there's still more 45s into FAR EAST league (This band just got HUGE HYPE). THEATRICS for example (2 copies had John and I know where another 2 are).APPRENTESS 45 (never ever seen this offered) nor on lists or sale.

Correct again. People much smarter than me have posted here numerous times that there are a ton of US singles known in quantities of 5 copies or less.
BTW- the Tora Orphan count is closer to 25 I think, though maybe I'm counting some copies twice.

Also What quantity do you consider as big to please the market? 25 copies? 50?

Good question. Based on the data I've collected over the years, I'd say the demand for US singles has 2 significant numbers: 5 and 10.
5 copies or less known: those are items people are likely to spend hundreds of dollars on.
5-10 copies known: here the price starts to drop. By the time you approach the 10th known copy, the price can easily dip below $100.
> 10 copies: this is where the price drops noticeably; you're looking at the $30-50 range perhaps.

This highlights how few people are really into collecting US singles currently.

The above chart is JUST my personal opinion. Others may disagree. It's just a trend that I base on my own experiences and knowledge. Even if you go with Kristian's # (20), which is twice my number, you're still talking about a very small quantity being able to meet the current demand for MANY (but not ALL) items.

If music is good then even these 50 copies could sell very fast and without big drop of the price.

And you're absolutely right that other factors affect price. I've posted numerous times about 'notoriety' affecting value, and Far East is the perfect example. No one knows what the bloody thing even sounds like, but the record is so notorious among fans and collectors that many people would pay hundreds for it without hearing a note. Heck, vxn offered $200 for mp3s of it last fall! Other examples:
--Lord Ryur sells for $300-400 even though > 3 dozen copies have been found.
--Yellow Avatars sell for the price of a small car even though 8 copies have been found.
--Solar Eagles sell for $750-1,000 and at least a few dozen copies of that have turned up (originals, not counting the boots).
(yes, I know these are not all US or 7" items; I'm illustrating notoriety vs quantity overall)

Whether the music on these records is 'good' is completely subjective, but what is not subjective is that a lot of people are willing to pay a lot of money for a copy.

there's another thing in the market I think.IF all copies are in hands of smart sellers like John,he can easily handle the Market.Seller can sell just one or 2 copies per year.And keep all demand HIGH.But IF another parties (With supplies) will be invovled into it then demand can drop.But you 'll never know the truth.

What is INSANELY 'RARE' is for more than 2 people to agree on anything on a open metal forum or for that matter any music forum or discussion list.

Glockose wrote: What is RARE?

doomedplanet wrote:What is INSANELY 'RARE' is for more than 2 people to agree on anything on a open metal forum or for that matter any music forum or discussion list.

I completely disagree!

Luna- yes, if a dealer can be patient and slowly release copies into the market, the price won't fluctuate as fast. Still, if the demand does not increase over time, the price will drop*. Many records, however, get 'dumped' onto the market because the seller needs to recoup his expenses pretty fast. A good example of this was the Quasimodo single; it went from unknown to ubiquitous; I think you could get copies everywhere from amazon to ebay to hellokitty.com at one point.


*- and if the demand rises over time, the price will rise. Like glock- said, it boils down to supply and demand.

http://tinyurl.com/b9fa9fm

saw this last week and thought it went quite pricey, but checking some completed listings found this:

http://tinyurl.com/bhujv3c

know vinyl pressings weren't that popular in the early 90s but wtf. was still a major release after all..

http://www.ebay.com/itm/MINOTAUR-Burner ... 51a896181f

Check the shipping cost!

Khnud wrote:http://www.ebay.com/itm/MINOTAUR-Burner ... 51a896181f

Check the shipping cost!

Holy shit, haha!

wow brutal!! In the last week or so i saw US sellers asking for shipping 1LP to Europe some 45 usd, thats so high

I've had the same shipping costs issues lately. People think that because the shipping cost went up they can make additional profit from buyers.

http://cgi.ebay.ch/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vie ... SS:CH:1123

oh my gawd!